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The Senate Pollsters Take Lots of Naps.

pretzel, sleeping
New polling has resulted in some signficant re-evaluations in the Senate races in MA and WI, and Nate Silver has come out with his Senate race ratings. I thought that I would redo my Senate ratings without first looking at 538's predictions, and see how we compared.

Here's my new predictions (to the nearest 10%). They've changed from -2.1 D Senators to -1.6 D Senators.


ME: R->D +1.0  (actually R->I)
MA: R->D +0.7
CT: D->R -0.2  
VA: D->R -0.5
IN: R->D +0.3
WI: D->R -0.5
MO: D->R -0.3
NE: D->R -1.0
ND: D->R -0.8
MT: D->R -0.7
AZ: R->D +0.2
NV: R->D +0.2

Total: -1.6


All right, now I'm going to look at 538 and translate Nate's predictions into the same format.

ME: R->D +0.9  (actually R->I)
MA: R->D +0.6
CT: D->R -0.3 (-0.25!)  
VA: D->R -0.4
IN: R->D +0.5
WI: D->R -0.6
MO: D->R -0.4
NE: D->R -0.8
ND: D->R -0.8
MT: D->R -0.6
AZ: R->D +0.3
NV: R->D +0.4

Total: -1.2


The biggest discrepancies are IN, NE and NV. In Indiana, I assume its 'Republican-ness' will help out Mordock, despite the current polling, just like in MA I assume its 'D-ness' will ultimately aid Warren. I'm surprised at Nate's rating of NE, showing Kerrey with any chance at all, since everyone has completely and utterly written him off. The lack of data is probably why, since there is uncertainty since no one has bothered to poll it in quite a while. Nevada is a toughie. Obama's coattails could help Berkley, along with polling that might undersample Hispanics. But I haven't seen any encouraging polling, and I believe Heller is reasonably popular, which is why I'm more pessimistic.

Comments

( 1 comment — Leave a comment )
rcfox
Sep. 19th, 2012 03:24 am (UTC)
As far as the Nevada Senate race, it's mud slinging as the entree with more mud slinging on top of it. I live in the epitomy of a swing district: Every one of my races (State Assembly, State Senate, Congress, Senate, and President) is considered close.

I've seen nothing that's come out that's going to change anyone's attitude with regards to this race. Berkley's biggest problem is the ethics investigation: It lends credence to the charges raised by Heller (and noted by the Review-Journal). I can't see her winning barring something very unusual happening in the next 50 days.
( 1 comment — Leave a comment )

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