15 days until the election.

Electoral Vote tallies:

538.com:    344-194
InTrade:    364-174 (339-199 using EV averaging)
EV.com :    364-171-3
RCP.com:    364-174

Intrade contracts:  Obama: 86%  McCain: 15%

538.com Obama win percentage: 93%

RCP National Average: O +4.8

How much better Obama is doing on average than Kerry in
battleground states:  +11.4%

Best news for Obama? He now has what looks like a lock on every
Kerry state, Iowa and New Mexico. Take one more state with more than
three electoral votes and he wins.

His problem is he is gaining in places that are no longer crucial to
the election: Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Montana, while
losing support in Ohio and Florida. Missouri is exception; it is a
shot across McCain's bow which McCain cannot ignore (and why McCain is
in Missouri today, while Obama is in Florida).

The Obama campaign did feel comfortable enough to send Biden to
Washington yesterday, a very safe state, to campaign for the state's
Governor (who is in a very tight race) and various aspiring
congresscritters like Darcy Burner.

Best news for McCain? The tracking polls are continuing to show
gains for McCain. The RCP average has gone down from O: +7.2% to O:
4.8%. We've yet to see this translate into electoral vote pickups,
but eventually it will have to, even if it levels off.

A poll out of Ohio, M: +1, should also provide encouragement.

          STATE OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES

   538 probs  Intrade   Electoral-Vote.com   RCP Avg.   Kerry-Bush  
              spread                                   differential

NH:   93       89-11         53-43            O +9.4       +9
PA:   98       88-11         53-39            O +13.2     +12
WV:   10       25-75         44-48            M +2.4       +9
VA:   90       77-21         51-44            O +6.8      +16     
NC:   55       59-43         48-47            O +1.3      +13   
GA:   07       17-83         44-51            M +6.8      +10
FL:   77       74-33         49-45            O +3.2       +9    
OH:   72       63-37         48-47            O +2.8       +3
MI:   98       94-07         55-39            O +11.8     +11
IN:   35       33-69         45-49            M +3.8      +17
WI:   99       94-08         52-37            O +10.7     +16
MN:   97       92-09         52-41            O +8.8       +8  
MO:   64       65-35         50-46            O +2.5      +11
ND:   17       32-68         45-45            M +4.0      +27
CO:   91       84-15         51-45            O +6.0      +11
NM:   93       88-12         54-44            O +8.4      +11
MT:   10       25-78         45-49            M +5.6      +16
NV:   75       77-24         50-46            O +4.2       +7

The first column is the 538.com projected probability in percent that
Obama will win the state (the probability that McCain will win is
100 minus this number).

The second column has the current Intrade contract prices for Obama
and McCain. These should approximately add up to 100, representing
probability estimates similar to 538.com, but will not always do so
due to a fairly low volume market.

The third data column (Electoral-vote.com) is polling percentages
using polling data from the previous week (or prior, if no such data
exists) that the site considers valid (i.e., polls not commissioned by
partisan interests), Obama's polling percentage first, then McCain's.

The fourth data column (Real Clear Politics) is the average difference
in polling percentage between Obama and McCain using recent polling
data that its site considers valid.

The fifth data column (Kerry-Bush differential) is the difference
between how well Obama is doing in the electoral-vote.com polling
statistics vs. how well Kerry performed against Bush in the 2004
election.